Should I use historical target-values versus the log with Amazon Forecast?

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If I am using Amazon Forecast, when should I use the actual values of the target-values in the historical data versus taking the logarithm of the value? I'm trying to get the most accurate forecast. Are there any general rules for the type of data or statistics that should drive this?

asked a year ago212 views
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Accepted Answer

It usually depends on the data. Let's take a ordinary least squares (OLS) example. OLS regression assumes that the errors (residuals) are normally distributed. When they are positively skewed (long right tail) taking logs can sometimes help.

Also, sometimes the meaning of a change in a variable is represented better. For example, income. If you make $20,000 a year, a $5,000 raise is huge. If you make $200,000 a year, it is small. Taking logs reflects this:

log(20,000) = 9.90 log(25,000) = 10.12 log(200,000) = 12.20 log(205,000) = 12.23 

The difference between 10.12 and 9.90 is greater than 12.23 and 12.20

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