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You've pretty much answered your own question.
For starters, go with the site-to-site VPN. It's inexpensive; low risk; easy to change; and it doesn't require an estimate of how much traffic will flow through the link. As long as they monitor it and find out how much it's being used it will give them an idea of what to look for (in terms of bandwidth) when they do migrate to Direct Connect.
When using either VPN or Direct Connect, link it to Transit Gateway for the best flexibility (multiple VPCs, firewall integration, etc.).
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