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CDK builds on top of Cloudformation. Items that are not in the Cloudformation spec use Cloudformation Custom Resources to call AWS API's.
So once deployed it will be stable based on the particular Service API's that it uses and for any Cloudformation Custom Resources the lambda runtime environment that it runs in. (Ie if a particular service changes a API it could break and if the particular runtime environment that the custom resource is using goes out of support. Such as a particular node version no longer supported.)
As far as CDK still being able to synth/deploy the same Cloudformation template. It is stable for the particular version but any upgrade to a later version of CDK or the bootstrapping have no guarantees. You can go to the AWS-CDK Github Releases to pull a older version of code it implement your own that you maintain and build an adapter if you want to upgrade the CDK version but still provide backwards compatibility.
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